The Water
Will Come
Rising Seas,
Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World
By Jeff
Goodell
Review by
Dave Gamrath
Brief Review:
Goodell
lays out his findings from his visits to key places facing some of the greatest
risks. Obviously, many of these places
are at low elevation, such as Miami, Venice, the Netherlands and low-lying
islands in the Pacific. Goodell also
describes how Greenland, the Artic and the Antarctic will be impacted. Other key risk areas may not be as obvious to
readers, such as New York City and multiple US military bases, including at our
largest Navy base, in Norfolk, Virginia, where the impact will be dramatic, yet
we’re not doing much to avoid it. In
fact, often the Trump Administration denies climate change is real and
prohibits government action. Goodell
gives examples of how the Trump administration is battling the US military’s
conclusion that climate change is the number one threat to national security,
and forcing our military’s abandonment of counter efforts.
Goodell
begins his book listing some pretty distressing statistics. Within the twentieth century, the oceans rose
about six inches. Today, seas are rising
at more than twice this rate. A 2017
NOAA report stated that by 2100, sea-levels will rise from at least one foot to
over eight feet, depending on how humans behave, and will keep rising for
centuries. Key to how much of a disaster
this will be is not just the amount of rise, but the speed of rise. History has shown that water levels can rise amazingly
quickly. At the end of the last ice age,
water rose about thirteen feet in a single century.
The
best way to save coastal cities is to quit burning fossil fuels. But even if we stop today, the earth’s
temperature will keep rising. A
significant amount of the CO2 we emit today will be in the atmosphere for thousands
of years; it sticks around longer than nuclear waste. If humans somehow “get it” and stop burning
fossil fuels, we will still have around three degrees Fahrenheit warming by
2100, which would result in about two feet of sea level rise. If we keep burning fossil fuels the way we
are, we’re looking at greater than eight degrees Fahrenheit warming by 2100, and
sea level rising between four to thirteen feet.
Just a note: if we burn all the
fossil fuel reserves in the world, we’re looking at sea level going up about
200 feet. Sheesh. Bring your wetsuit.
Damage
from sea level rise comes in various forms:
higher storm surges, higher tides, gradual washing away of
infrastructure, etc. About $1 trillion
worth of US real estate will be underwater by 2100 if sea levels go up “only”
six feet. If we don’t act, we’re looking
at losing over $100 trillion globally by 2100. If one measures risk in dollars,
clearly a lot of them will be lost. As
for people, there will be significant displacement: about 145 million face displacement if we keep
rise at three feet or lower. If we
don’t, over a billion people could be displaced. When one thinks about how crazy times are
today in regards to immigration and refugees, with relatively low numbers
resulting in major backlashes in the US and Europe, and then thinks about the
huge numbers upcoming due to warming, it’s hard to imagine the anger, fear and violence
that will result globally. Scary times.
Goodell
writes of how many endangered communities are responding, and it’s pretty
depressing. Take Miami, for
example. Clearly Miami faces huge risk, yet
many of its leaders are still strongly in denial. “Don’t scare the tourists or investors” is
the mantra. So, Miami’s building boom
continues, with completely inadequate concerns for the water that will
come. Goodell calls it “real estate
roulette.”
Goodell
also describes people’s resistance to moving to higher ground, and how the
government repeatedly helps people rebuild after hurricane damage, flooding,
etc. As the frequency and magnitude of
the storms increase, the cost to rebuild rises, yet our government seems
determined to avoid the hard reality that people will soon need to relocate. And many who live in these low-lying, highly
exposed communities remain climate deniers or skeptics. Goodell tells of multiple examples where
communities have sued the government (and won) for not supporting their
continued living in flood areas.
As with
many things, poor communities will suffer the most from sea level rise. “The basic injustice of climate change is
that people who are the least responsible for the problem are the ones that
will pay most dearly for it.”
As
for Goodell’s coverage of what’s happening in the Artic, Greenland and
Antarctica, the dramatic changes bring a chill, not because of the cold, but
from the impact of the warming. The
Artic is warming twice as fast as the global average, and ice is rapidly
melting away. Extensive scientific
efforts are ongoing, and with them forecasts get more dire.
Goodell
also discusses the potential risks and benefits of geoengineering, such as
having high flying jets spray sulfate particles into the atmosphere, in attempt
to reflect the sun back into space. Most
scientists believe the risks from this far, far outweigh potential
benefits. But might us
humans try it anyway? Time will tell.
Goodell
is quite a good storyteller, and The Water Will Come is easy to read, even with
its hard message. Pick it up.
Reviewer Opinion: thumb up