Danger Zone:  The Coming Conflict with China, by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley

Review by Dave Gamrath

One-liner:  In Danger Zone:  The Coming Conflict with China, authors Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, make the argument that China will be willing to go to war sooner than later to achieve its goal of global dominance. 

Book Review: 

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a right-wing think tank, and not the place I typically go for political opinion or policy guidance.  But in looking for a book about the potential threats China poses to a peaceful world, I picked up Danger Zone:  The Coming Conflict with China, by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, both professors and both AEI fellows.  I found it an interesting read.

Brands and Beckley state that the US vs China is the “geopolitical test of our era.”  They claim that China wants to be the world’s only superpower, and that the US is the main obstacle standing in their way.  They also claim that the point of maximum rivalry between the US and China, and the danger of war, is the 2020s, I.E., within the next few years.  Why?  “China has reached the most treacherous state in the lifecycle of a rising power – the point where it is strong enough to aggressively disrupt the existing order but is losing confidence that time is on its side.”  The authors write that geopolitical disasters occur at the “intersection of ambition and desperation,” and that China has large amounts of both. 

China’s desire to become a dominant global force is obvious.  But what is China so desperate about?  Brands and Beckley state that we are currently in a time of “Peak China,” not a forever rising China.  Thus, the time for China to reorder the world is running out.  China is in more trouble than people realize, and this makes them more dangerous.  The US is at a key moment in its competition with China, with the risk of war at its highest, and “decisions made or not made” shaping the world for decades to come.

Western countries, led by the US, were actually happily helping China grow since the 1970s, investing heavily into China and providing them key technologies.  After 9/11, the US and the rest of the world were distracted in the Middle East.  Effectively, China was given a “grace period” for much of the past fifty years, which they exploited to the fullest.  But now, China is facing an array of crises, which the authors believe have led China to its “peak.” 

China is facing a “demographic catastrophe,” with a huge aging population without sufficient young workers to support them.  Spending in support of China’s aging population will need to increase dramatically, stressing China’s already stagnating economy.  A stagnant economy will shatter China’s superpower goals.  China is also facing an environmental catastrophe from its past intensive growth without environmental protections.  China already lacks safe drinking water and food security.  China also lacks key resources.  China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made himself “chairman of everything,” I.E., a dictator for life who prioritizes political control over effective policies, which has resulted in massive debt and excess capacity.  Covid further wrecked China’s economy.  The authors state that a poor economy will likely lead to civil unrest and revolt against Xi’s autocratic control.  China is also threatened by their geographical location, surrounded by “historic rivals in every direction.” 

Brands and Beckley present multiple historic examples that show this combination of deteriorating conditions combined with high ambitions as a “danger zone.”  “The record is clear:  When China feels vulnerable, it gets violent.”  This is where wars start.   China’s decades-long preparation for this war has dramatically accelerated in recent years.  China now has the world’s largest military, with a massive ship-building program and military buildup, including anti-ship ballistic missiles and quiet attack submarines to eliminate the US Navy in the western Pacific.  China has been building artificial islands in key locations, then placing military bases on them.  And China will rival the US as a nuclear power by the 2030s.

Outside of their military buildup, China has been engaging in many other tactics to position itself for global dominance, with a special focus on dominating high-tech industries to “generate economic and military power.”  Striving for technological supremacy, China regularly engages in extensive illegal activities, including “intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, and commercial espionage,” which cost US companies between $225 billion and $600 billion annually.  China is making massive investments in key technologies, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and efforts to control the internet.  China is also eager to provide dictators throughout the world with new technologies to enable them to suppress their citizens and keep autocratic rule, such as “millions of unblinking cameras.”  Through their “Belt Road Initiative,” China has invested a trillion dollars to dominate Eurasia and secure resources, markets and influence.  China is the world’s largest overseas lender, and trades with more countries than the US.   

Going forward, the authors see China working to expand their efforts to create an economic empire across Eurasia and Africa, and to continue their race to global technological dominance.  China will keep investing intensely in their military buildup, and will continue attacking democracies and freedom, as well as helping to suppress anti-authoritarian revolts in other countries.  China will also continue preparing to attack Taiwan.  China has been outspending Taiwan 25 to 1 on military defense.  “Xi has staked his legitimacy on liberating Taiwan.”  China could blockade Taiwan, or just pummel Taiwan with missiles.  The US will have to decide whether to accept defeat in Taiwan, or respond with nuclear weapons.  At a minimum, the authors see us entering a new Cold War.  China believes that the US “threatens nearly everything” that China desires.

Brands and Beckley stress that the US should strive to not provoke war, but believe that the US and China are on a “collision course,” and thus the US should be aggressively preparing for this upcoming conflict.  They again look to history, and state the US should learn from the previous Cold War, which provides “strategic insights about what crossing a danger zone requires.”  These insights include clear prioritization and objectives, assembling a free-world coalition, moving with urgency but not stupidity, not being afraid to go on the offense in measured steps, taking calculated risks, and focusing on the “long game.”  The US should give up on trying to get China to play by the rules.  They won’t.  Instead, the US should form strong alliances that exclude and outcompetes China, and establish a free-world economic bloc aimed at China.  The authors close with providing ten principles for long-term strategic objectives. 

Today, with human population racing towards ten billion, and climate change already beginning to devastate our planet, humans need to somehow learn to work together to avoid global catastrophe.  Yet, history shows that humans are far too eager to go to war.  Danger Zone seems a fair assessment of a another possible, if not likely, upcoming global war.  And so it goes.

Reviewer Opinion: 

Interesting read.

Reviewer Rating of Book: 

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