Nuclear War:  A Scenario, by Annie Jacobsen

Review by Dave Gamrath

One-liner:  With Vladimir Putin's threats of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Russia withdrawing from nuclear arms treaties, China building up its nuclear arsenal, and North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities steadily improving, I decided to read Annie Jacobsen’s new book, Nuclear War:  A Scenario, which details what a general nuclear war could look like.

Book Review: 

Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry recently stated that “right now, we are closer to having a nuclear war happen, even by accident, than we were during the Cold War.”  These concerns led me to read Annie Jacobsen’s new book, Nuclear War:  A Scenario, which details “what the moments after an inbound nuclear missile launch could look like.”  Jacobsen’s book is both fascinating and terrifying. 

Jacobsen begins with the history of our nuclear buildup. American leaders knew that nuclear war was unwinnable, yet the buildup of nuclear weapons continued until, by 1967, America had stockpiled 31,255 nuclear bombs—many times the number necessary to completely destroy the world. Treaties with Russia have since reduced the number of nuclear bombs on both sides to around 5,000 warheads each, still plenty to destroy life on Earth.

The bulk of Jacobsen’s book is dedicated to explaining the step-by-step process of how things would unfold if a thermonuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) were launched against the U.S. In Jacobsen’s scenario, North Korea launches a thermonuclear ICBM at Washington, D.C., intended to decapitate the U.S.'s ability to respond. The travel time for the missile to reach D.C. is 33 minutes. By the way, once launched, an ICBM cannot be recalled.

Jacobsen describes the multitude of U.S. facilities that would be involved in a response. The degree of technology involved is staggering. Our satellite system would recognize the missile launch in less than a second. Communications between different facilities would be initiated within seconds. It would take just six seconds for the Pentagon to be alerted, and alarms at all facilities would immediately sound. Jacobsen explains in detail how this process would work.

The U.S. President is notified within about three minutes. Jacobsen explains that “the President has sole authority to launch America’s nuclear weapons,” and that she would have only six minutes to do so. “The President asks permission from no one.” Given that billions of lives are at stake, the need for our President to remain calm and clear-headed could not be more critical. As the President tries to quickly assess the situation, panic and confusion surround them.

The U.S. "nuclear triad" defense system includes nuclear weapons that can be launched by land, air, and sea. We have 400 ICBMs, 66 nuclear-capable bombers, and 14 nuclear submarines. We also have 100 tactical nuclear bombs at NATO bases in Europe. It's likely that all these systems would be activated in an attack on the U.S.

North Korea’s ICBM travels at 14,000 mph. Can we shoot it down? The U.S. does have a few dozen interceptor missiles to try, but even in tests, their success rate is low. It’s “akin to shooting a bullet with a bullet.” In Jacobsen’s scenario, we miss, and the ICBM continues toward Washington, D.C.

But wait, it gets worse! A North Korean submarine then launches a nuclear missile at a nuclear power plant in California. Jacobsen explains how submarines are the most dangerous nuclear system due to their stealth and mobility. U.S. nuclear submarines each carry eighty nuclear warheads. Jacobsen writes that, in reality, “there is no defense against a nuclear-armed submarine.” They are too close, and their missiles would arrive too fast. In this scenario, the missile hits the nuclear power plant, causing a catastrophic meltdown that renders the surrounding area uninhabitable for centuries.

It takes 33 minutes for the ICBM to hit Washington, D.C. Jacobsen explains the resulting destruction, from the first millisecond to the next few minutes. The total devastation is unimaginable. It’s only one bomb, yet millions are dead or dying. Blast waves create “several-hundred-mile-per-hour winds.” There is a “reverse suction effect” that pulls people back into the center of a burning inferno. Deadly radioactive particles coat everything below. She describes how a massive inferno follows, consuming everything within 100 square miles—a “mega-fire beyond measure” where “people, everywhere, burn alive.” Air temperatures exceed 1,220 degrees Fahrenheit. Carbon dioxide from the fire suffocates remaining life. Within ten minutes, total destruction extends 12 miles from ground zero. Roads and exits are obliterated, and help cannot arrive for days due to the poisoned environment. Survivors are forced into self-survival mode.

The third and final North Korean nuclear strike occurs in space when a North Korean satellite, illegally containing a nuclear device, detonates over Nebraska. This explosion wipes out America’s EMP system, cutting off communications, disabling modern cars, grounding planes, halting water pumps, and plunging the country into chaos.

Jacobsen’s scenario highlights numerous weaknesses in our defense systems, including a major concern: If the U.S. retaliates by firing nuclear missiles at North Korea, those missiles would need to pass over Russia. Will Russia believe the missiles aren’t targeting them and let them pass? Or will they assume the U.S. is attacking and launch a full-scale counterattack, to which the U.S. would respond in kind, dooming the planet? Although “hotlines” are set up for immediate communication between the U.S. and Russia, Jacobsen provides shocking real-world examples of communication failures. Russia has an estimated 1,000 nuclear targets in the U.S., while the U.S. has approximately 975 targets in Russia. In Jacobsen’s scenario, both sides launch their missiles. The end is just minutes away.

Jacobsen notes that it would take a psychopath to launch a nuclear weapon against the U.S. But North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might fit that description. Jacobsen explains how North Korea has built massive underground facilities, deep within their mountains, where Kim could remain safe for decades.

Jacobsen closes by describing the next 24 months on Earth. Former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev once said that “the survivors will envy the dead.” Fires rage, and “the density of soot would reduce global temperatures by roughly 27 degrees Fahrenheit,” while in America, the average temperature would drop nearly 40 degrees. The world plunges into nuclear winter. Mass extinction occurs. Jacobsen wonders, even if humans survive, will the memory of our culture endure? “With time, after a nuclear war, all present-day knowledge will be lost.”

For me, this was a petrifying read. I found myself too anxious to put the book down and basically read it in one sitting. I kept thinking, “What if it was up to Trump to deliver an immediate and rational response to save us all?” Some drinking was involved that evening.

Reviewer Opinion:  Scary, but very well written.

Reviewer Rating of Book:  Five out of five stars.