The Return Of Great Powers, by Jim Sciutto

Review by Dave Gamrath

One-liner:  CNN’s chief national security analyst Jim Sciutto offers his latest assessment on global security and the potential for war in his book The Return of Great Powers:  Russia, China, and the Next World War.

Book Review: 

As CNN’s chief national security analyst, Jim Sciutto has the opportunity to conduct extensive interviews with global security and military leaders. In The Return of Great Powers:  Russia, China, and the Next World War, Sciutto offers his latest assessment of current global security dynamics and where they may be headed.

Sciutto begins by exploring Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. He writes, "The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked the clearest break between the post-Cold War period and the new world disorder." This conflict showcases the realities of twenty-first-century warfare, including autonomous weapon systems, unmanned drones, and electronic warfare. Russia's "scorched-earth" campaign makes "no distinction between military and civilian targets." Sciutto stresses the importance of U.S. and European weapons for Ukraine's defense but reveals how the "just-in-time" weapons production system is falling short. He quotes experts who outline the need for a fivefold increase in the U.S. industrial base.

Sciutto explains how Ukraine represents a proxy war between great powers, leading to an unexpected new unity within NATO and strengthening alliances on both sides of the conflict. There is a real danger of escalation to other countries. Sciutto discusses how Putin believes the Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—"are rightfully part of Russia," and how he is subtly pursuing the retaking of Moldova. Why should the U.S. continue defending Ukraine? Quoting Winston Churchill, Sciutto notes, "appeasing the dictator is like feeding the crocodile, hoping that you are the last to be eaten." Additionally, the war has significantly degraded Russian forces, with devastating losses of hundreds of thousands of troops, which may prevent Putin from invading other countries.

Sciutto next examines the conflict with China, where, for the first time, NATO has "identified China as a direct challenge to its security." China is rapidly expanding its military capabilities to confront the U.S., making "massive investments in long-range anti-air and anti-ship missiles" to target U.S. carrier groups and naval forces.

At the center of a potential U.S./NATO conflict with China is Taiwan. China is increasingly aggressive and reckless toward Taiwan, risking a "mistake" that could quickly escalate into a hot war. Again, why should the U.S. care about Taiwan? A war between China and Taiwan would devastate the global economy. "Fifty percent of commercial traffic passes through the Taiwan Strait every single day, and more than seventy percent of semiconductors are made in Taiwan." Thus, if China attacks Taiwan, the global economy could implode. U.S. security experts warn that if the U.S. fails to defend Taiwan, "we will be desperately trying to defend a perimeter that is much bigger and much closer to home."

Sciutto provides a detailed discussion of the current strategies of China, the U.S., and Taiwan. War games suggest that any conflict would result in catastrophic losses for all involved. What would a war over Taiwan look like? "Instead of tank battles, artillery barrages, and trench warfare, planners envision lightning-fast air and sea combat, with rapid waves of missiles, including China's new hypersonic missiles, anti-satellite weapons, and cyberattacks disabling key military and civilian technologies in advance." However, Sciutto notes that China is likely learning from Ukraine how badly a war can go, which may give its all-powerful dictator, Xi Jinping, pause before attacking Taiwan.

Sciutto also delves into the potential for nuclear war. Russia's invasion of Ukraine "marked the first time that a nuclear-armed power had invaded a neighbor." Russia has repeatedly threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, making the use of such weapons "no longer unthinkable." "By virtue of having nuclear weapons, Russia has threatened not just Ukraine but all of Europe." If Russia were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, "the U.S. and its allies would, for the first time, directly engage Russian forces, targeting them with a devastating campaign of air strikes and missiles." However, it's unlikely the U.S. would respond with its own nuclear strike. Alarmingly, Russia has been stepping away from nuclear arms treaties and is already violating existing agreements. We may be nearing the end of the era of nuclear arms control and have "entered a truly dangerous period."

Sciutto discusses other potential conflict zones, including near-space (up to sixty thousand feet), outer space, and the Arctic. He also examines the likely impact of emerging technologies, such as cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence, on future conflicts.

Sciutto then addresses the "Trump wild card." He asserts that the forecasts and concerns of the global leaders he has interviewed could be upended by Trump. Trump's former military advisors have repeatedly stated that "it would be a fundamental catastrophe for us" if Trump were reelected, and European leaders are "petrified" at the prospect. "At the core of their concern is the former president's character and self-interest." According to Trump's former Chief of Staff, retired Marine Corps general John Kelly, "Trump repeatedly expressed admiration for Adolf Hitler." Sciutto argues that Trump is clearly enthralled by dictators and often sides with them over U.S. allies. "He envies their power and believes he should have wielded similar power." Foreign actors are likely to continue interfering in the 2024 U.S. election in support of Trump.

Sciutto concludes with several "paths to peace." He argues that nations are now "navigating this new and more uncertain world order without many of the guardrails built up during the Cold War." This needs to change. New treaties are needed to cover emerging areas of conflict, such as AI, cyber, and space. A new "joint strategic framework between Washington and Beijing" is essential. We can't lose Ukraine because if we do, China will likely take Taiwan, and "every authoritarian state will feel empowered to grab whatever land it desires." We must revive efforts to negotiate new nuclear treaties and arms control measures. Cooperation between global powers is also crucial in addressing climate change, particularly with China. Additionally, we must not forget the Global South and ensure food security. Coalition-building must continue. Finally, we must find cohesion at home in the U.S. and overcome the rise of isolationist factions. Above all, we cannot yield to dictators, or we will be their next victims.

In closing, I would add that we cannot elect a dictator to run the good old U.S. of A.

Reviewer Opinion:  Interesting

Reviewer Rating of Book:  Thumb up